Hypothesis

We explain what a hypothesis is, its characteristics, types and uses. Also, how it is formulated, its importance and examples.

What is a hypothesis?

A hypothesis, assumption or conjecture is a statement that is taken as true in order to develop a reflection or carry out an investigation of some type. This is a tentative proposition, the validity or veracity of which must be demonstrated through logical thinking or research.

Hypotheses are tools of thought, whose value is provisional. They allow a person to mentally contemplate a scenario, probable or not.and thus reach a conclusion about it. For example, someone could wonder what to do if the electricity suddenly goes out in their house and design a contingency plan based on that assumption.

The mental scenarios evoked in this way are called hypotheticalthat is, they exist only as a hypothesis or speculation. However, they should not be confused with fiction, that is, with the free exercise of the imagination, since the latter does not necessarily have the purpose of reaching certain conclusions.

• See also: Scientific method

Characteristics of a hypothesis

Every hypothesis has the following characteristics:

• It is a tool of thought. It allows us to draw conclusions from a mental scenario, probable or not, and thus act accordingly.
• It detaches from reality. It generally arises from the observation of an existing phenomenon, or from mental speculation around a real topic.
• It consists of a relationship between two or more variables. Establishes a probable connection between a phenomenon A and another B, expressed in the form of a proposition.
• It has a provisional value. It is taken to be valid in the course of reasoning or experiment, which does not mean that it is ultimately valid.
• It can be probable or improbable. It can be more or less true, as long as it can be demonstrated or refuted by logical reasoning or empirical research.
• It is always falsifiable. You can always put forward arguments that contradict it and thus put it to the test.

Types of hypotheses

Hypotheses can be classified in many ways, according to specific criteria, such as their scope, their origin, or their degree of demonstration.

According to your scope

Depending on the range of the variables that manage the hypotheses, a distinction can be made between:

• Singular hypotheses. They refer to a specific event that occurs on a singular occasion. For example: The ground is burned because lightning struck.
• General assumptions. They refer to an event that occurs repeatedly within a system. For example: In this region, a lot of lightning occurs because there is a lot of evaporation.
• Universal hypotheses. They try to demonstrate content that applies to the entirety of a topic. For example: In regions of high evaporation, a lot of lightning usually occurs.
• Probabilistic hypotheses. They refer to the possibility of an event occurring and are formulated in terms of proportions, percentages or majorities. For example: There is an 80% chance that lightning will strike in a region of high evaporation.

According to its origin

Depending on the logical procedure that allows formulating a hypothesis, a distinction can be made between:

• Inductive hypotheses. They are obtained by induction, that is, with generalizations and assumptions based on singular cases. For example: If penicillin kills one type of bacteria, it will surely kill many others.
• Deductive hypotheses. They are obtained by deduction, that is, they are logically derived from previous general premises. For example: If all the planets in the solar system are round, surely planet Earth is too.
• Analog hypotheses. They are obtained through analogy, that is, by comparing or transferring the content of one situation to other similar ones. For example: If a fish out of water cannot breathe, surely a man underwater cannot breathe either.
• Null hypotheses. They are made to refute what is proposed in another hypothesis, that is, to demonstrate the opposite point. For example: Contrary to popular belief, drinking plenty of water has no effect on hair growth.
• Hypothesis ad hoc. They are formulated from the failure of a previous hypothesis, which can be disproved or shown to be invalid. It may be a replacement hypothesis, or a complementary one, which prevents the falsification of the first. For example: Water always boils at 100 °C, and if it does not boil at that temperature, it is not pure water.

According to your degree of demonstration

Depending on how true or probable a hypothesis is, we can talk about:

• Probable hypotheses. They have not been verified, but there is a possibility that they are valid. For example: There is life beyond Earth.
• Disproved hypotheses. They have been proven false by logic or empirical research. For example: The Earth is flat.
• Proven hypotheses. They have been proven valid through logic or empirical research. For example: The Earth is round.

• Types of hypotheses

How is a hypothesis formulated?

The steps to develop a hypothesis are usually the following:

• Choose the problem of interest. The hypothesis must arise from the observation of some real phenomenon or the mental contemplation of a possible problem.
• Gather information. It is important to know as much as possible about the topic to be studied, in order to formulate a responsible and informed hypothesis.
• Compare information and explanations. Possible answers or solutions to the problem must be explored, based on the data collected and contrasted.
• Choose the most likely explanation. An explanation that is plausible and demonstrable through the desired research method should be prioritized.
• Write the hypothesis. The hypothesis must be expressed in the form of a statement that is clear, direct and leaves no room for ambiguity and subjectivities.

Importance of hypotheses

The hypotheses are fundamental tools for logical thinking and, especially, for scientific researchsince they allow the formulation of mental scenarios that lead to valid conclusions. In fact, the formulation of a hypothesis constitutes one of the initial steps of the scientific method, that is, the methodology for collecting and managing the information that supports scientific knowledge.

In the field of research, the hypotheses serve as a starting pointsince they allow us to propose a probable scenario with which to start the study. It does not matter that said scenario is later demonstrated to be false, since said demonstration already constitutes a contribution to the field of knowledge and encourages the formulation of a new adjusted hypothesis.

• Research hypotheses

Examples of hypotheses

Some examples of historical hypotheses are:

• The hypothesis of the South American origin of the human being. It was supported and defended by the Argentine naturalist Florentino Ameghino (1853-1911), but has been proven false by subsequent anthropological and archaeological studies.
• The hypothesis of the roundness of the Earth. It was proven by the Greek mathematician Eratosthenes (276-194 BC) through measurements and mathematical calculations.
• The hypothesis of a maritime trade route from Europe to India. It was supported and tested by the Genoese navigator Christopher Columbus (1451-1506), but it turned out to be false because the American continent, unknown until then, was found on the path of the expedition.
• The gravitational attraction hypothesis. It was formulated by the British physicist Isaac Newton (1643-1727), who demonstrated that the force of attraction between objects is universal and depends on their masses.
• The hypothesis of the evolutionary origin of species. It was formulated and argued by the British naturalist Charles Darwin (1809-1882) in his work The origin of species (1859), to explain that all forms of life come from the process of adaptation to its environment of a previous form of life.

Is a hypothesis the same as a theory?

Although in everyday speech they can be used synonymously, the notions of hypothesis and theory They have clearly different meanings in the language of science.

A hypothesis constitutes a starting point derived from the observation of reality, that is, an informed assumption, while a theory is a comprehensive model of reality, which explains a given phenomenon in a logical and verifiable manner. Therefore, A theory is composed of a set of hypotheses that have been verified and demonstrated.

References

• Bunge, M. (2000). Scientific research. His strategy and his philosophy. 21st century.
• Cacciamani, S. (2017). Formulate hypotheses. To build knowledge. Narcea Editions.
• Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. (2024). Hypothesis. The Britannica Dictionary. https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/